Economic Snapshot – July 2016

Economic Snapshot – July 2016

In Summary – a look at July 2016

The turbulence world financial markets unleashed by the surprise Brexit vote at the end of June quickly disappeared in July as it became apparent that any immediate negative impact would more than likelybe restricted to the UK. The issue of sorting out the actual exit has also been realised as a long term
programme meaning there’s no need to overreact.

What markets did do, is turn their attention back to the pace of economic growth and its implications for central bank policy. In general, the latest data show no signs of imminent recession in major key economies like the US and China. Equally there’s not enough US growth to clearly compel the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates in a hurry. Combined with expectations of further monetary stimulus in the UK, Europe and Japan, the markets were happy to resume buying both equities and government bonds.

After holding the cash rate steady in June, the Reserve Bank cut to a new record low of 1.5% on August 3rd. This came in the wake of the inflation report for the second quarter which, as expected, showedinflation remaining below the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s target range.

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